Shocks, resilience and regional industry policy: Brexit and the automotive sector in two Midlands regions

This article draws upon novel survey evidence to examine the possible regional impacts of Brexit as a ‘disruptive process' to manufacturing operations and logistics in the automotive industry, in the context of the regional resilience literature. The current Brexit (and Covid-19) context, along with the sector's need to re-orientate towards electrification, provides renewed urgency to reconsider industrial policy in spatial terms. The findings have salience not only in the context of anticipating and reacting to Brexit-induced economic shocks at a regional level, but also over the role of decentralized regional bodies. In this regard, the UK government's agenda of ‘levelling up' will be challenging, especially in the context of the place-based shocks likely to arise from Brexit as well as the impact of Covid-19. The article concludes that a more place-based regional industrial policy is required both to anticipate and to respond to shocks and also to reposition the sector in the region going forward.

African agri-entrepreneurship in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The African continent is known for high entrepreneurial activity, especially in the agricultural sector. Despite this, the continent's economic development is below expectations, due to numerous factors constraining the growth and sustainability of agricultural SMEs. These constraints have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study was to understand the pathways through which the pandemic affected agri-SMEs, with specific focus on assessing the differentiated effects arising from the size of the agri-SME and the gender of the owner-manager. Methods: Data was collected from over 100 agri-SMEs, ranging in size from sole proprietorships with one employee to agri-SMEs employing up to 100 people, in six African countries. Mixed methods were used to analyse the data with changes in business operations arising from changing market access, regimented health and safety guidelines and constrained labour supply assessed using visualisations and descriptive statistics. Logistic regression modelling was employed to determine the set of variables contributing to agri-SME business downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: All surveyed agri-SMEs were negatively affected by COVID-19-associated restrictions with the size of the firm and gender of the owner-managers resulting in differentiated impacts. The smallest agri-SMEs, mainly owner-managed by women, were more likely to experience disruptions in marketing their goods and maintaining their labour supply. Larger agri-SMEs made changes to their business operations to comply with government guidelines during the pandemic and made investments to manage their labour supply, thus sustaining their business operations. In addition, logistic regression modelling results show that financing prior to the pandemic, engaging in primary agricultural production, and being further from urban centres significantly influenced the likelihood of a firm incurring business losses. Conclusions: These findings necessitate engendered multi-faceted agri-SME support packages that are tailored for smaller-sized agri-SMEs. Any such support package should include support for agri-SMEs to develop sustainable marketing strategies and help them secure flexible financing that considers payment deferrals and debt moratorium during bona fide market shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of Government Response to COVID-19 on the Role of GVC and Transportation*

Purpose - study aims to investigate the relationships between global value chain (GVC)-and transportation-related determinants and economic performance. Also, moderating effects of COVID-19 on the relationships are theoretically and empirically discussed. A limitation of previous studies includes their over-reliance on the opportunities of GVC participation and larger transportation. This study represents the challenges associated with them. Also, it shows how GVC and logistics can be difficult in case of a market fluctuation such as COVID-19.Design/methodology - The sample for this study includes 828 observations from 138 countries. A semi-panel data set has been used. Six observations for each country are used to empirically test the hypotheses and a Two-way cluster model is conducted.Findings - It is confirmed that GVC forward participation contributes more than the backward participation to enhance performance. Transportation infrastructure is critical, but large scales of marine and air transportations are not positive in terms of economic performance. Stricter government response to COVID-19 negatively moderates economic performance by GVC backward participation and transportation infrastructure.Originality/value - The spread of COVID-19 is causing a severe collapse of GVC and transportation. This study empirically verifies the moderating effects of the government stringency on GVC and transportation. Previous studies usually discuss a positive impact of GVC and transportation size on economic performance. However, this study aims to show various challenges behind GVC participation and large scale transportation.

Vulnerability and coping strategies within wild meat trade networks during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Measures adopted to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and economic shocks caused by the pandemic have affected food networks globally, including wild meat trade networks that support the livelihoods and food security of millions of people around the world. In this article, we examine how COVID-related shocks have affected the vulnerability and coping strategies of different actors along wild meat trade networks. Informed by 1,876 questionnaires carried out with wild meat hunters, traders, vendors, and consumers in Cameroon, Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Guyana, the article presents qualitative evidence as to how COVID-19 impacted different segments of society involved in wild meat trade networks. Our findings largely align with McNamara et al. (2020) and Kamogne Tagne et al.'s (2022) causal model hypothesising how the impacts of the pandemic could lead to a change in local incentives for wild meat hunting in sub-Saharan African countries. Like McNamara et al. (2020) and Kamogne Tagne et al. (2022), we find that the pandemic reduced wild meat availability for wild meat actors in urban areas while increasing reliance on wild meat for subsistence purposes in rural areas. However, we find some impact pathways to be more relevant than others, and also incorporate additional impact pathways into the existing causal model. Based on our findings, we argue that wild meat serves as an important safety net in response to shocks for some actors in wild meat trade networks. We conclude by advocating for policies and development interventions that seek to improve the safety and sustainability of wild meat trade networks and protect access to wild meat as an environmental coping strategy during times of crisis.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Dutch Flower Trade-Logistics Node

Cut, cooled, packed, transported and traded all over the world, flowers represent a showcase of a worldwide integrated trade-logistics system. As one of the most perishable, vulnerable and time-critical products, speed is everything in harvesting, moving and trading of flowers. In the international trade of flowers and logistics of florticulture products, the Netherlands is the largest center of trade and logistics of flowers, taking a share of more than 40% in global cut flower export volume. When COVID-19 hit the world, this ever-moving system came to a full stop. What did this mean for the trade and logistics system? Which players were hit most? Did the crises change the system, just interrupt it or has it set the stage for developments already under way to strengthen and accelerate? This chapter presents and discusses the international position of the Dutch trade-logistics system as the most dynamic part of a worldwide flower industry. It sketches key trends in the industry over the last decade and draws a line towards possible post-COVID-19 scenarios for the worldwide flower industry and the international position of the Netherlands. The Dutch flower industry has shown incredible resilience to the external shock of COVID-19, but the crisis also has uncovered some weaknesses of the international flower industry. However, the chapter concludes that it is unlikely that these weaknesses will change the direction of developments in the sector, some of which already started to take shape in the 1970s. The chapter is based on pre-COVID-19 research and literature on the trade-logistics hub of the Netherlands, an analysis of trade and logistics data from around 2000 up to the first months of 2021, and existing economic scenarios for the flower industry and world trade. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

On the employment and health impact of the COVID-19 shock on Italian regions: a value chain approach

We evaluate the exposure of Italian regions to employment and the health risk associated with the spread of COVID-19. First, we estimate the degree of participation of Italian regions in a plurality of value chains linked to consumption, investment and exports. Second, we investigate the different levels of contagion risk associated with each value chain and the possibility of reducing such risk through remote work. We find that regions are affected differently by lockdown policies because of their highly heterogeneous embeddedness in different value chains, and their diverse sectoral contributions to each of them. © 2023 Regional Studies Association.

GLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORKS IN THE REGIONAL ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK: CASE OF THE EU PERIPHERAL AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURING

Recent transformations following the global financial crisis of 2009, COVID-19 pandemic, supply chains disruptions and newest shocks have radically reshaped global production landscape and challenged comparative benefits of global production networks (GPN) vs global value chains (GVC) paradigms in international production analysis. The study tests the hypothesis that GPN concept allows for a better identification of structural shifts in international production structures while revealing regional patterns of cooperation. In the first section, the main methodological constraints of GVC paradigm are specified. Additionally, the reasons for the application of network-based approach to international production are outlined. The second section dissects the EU automotive manufacturing to support the theoretical propositions. While comparing GVC and GPN quantitative toolkits, the possible trade-off has been reached which is to calculate network indicators (transitivity, centrality, etc.) on the inter-country input-output tables. As a result, the hypothesis was confirmed. Specifically, betweenness centrality metric suggests that Czechia and Slovakia have immediately favoured a positive effect of the entry into the EU, whereas neither of GVC indicators reveals such a shift. Simultaneously, 2008 crisis is depicted via GVC indicators, whilst network metrics suggest no structural changes in the production system. These results corroborate to our theoretical juxtaposition of GVC/GPN approaches. The methodological cohesion of two sets of indicators further advances the views on European regional core-periphery integration and automotive production networks dynamics. At the same time, the findings may contribute to the reassessment of regional integration developments in Europe, as well as in Latin America and Eurasia. © González G. H., Sapir E. V., Vasilchenko A. D. Text. 2023.

Systemic risks in supply chains: a need for system-level governance

PurposeGlobal and interconnected supply chains are increasingly exposed to systemic risks, whereby individual failures propagate across firms, sectors and borders. Systemic risks have emerged from the decisions of individual firms, e.g., outsourcing and buffer reduction, and are now beyond their control. This paper aims to identify appropriate approaches to mitigating those risks.Design/methodology/approachSystemic risks require analyzing supply chains beyond a dyadic perspective. This study approaches the problem through the lenses of complex systems and network theories. Drawing on the lessons learned from other systemic-risk-prone systems, e.g. energy and financial networks, both in research and practice, this study analyzes the adequate level of governance to monitor and manage systemic risks in supply chains.FindingsThe authors argue that governance institutions should be mandated to overview and reduce systemic risks in supply chains from the top down, as central bankers do for the financial system. Using firm-level data and tools from network analysis and system dynamics, they could quantify systemic risks, identify risk-prone interconnections in supply chains and design mitigating measures. This top-down approach would complement the bottom-up supply chain management approach and could help insurers design policies for contingent business interruptions.Originality/valueInstead of looking at supply chains purely from the firms' angle, the perspective of insurers and governments is brought in to reflect on the governance of risks.

Emissions intensity comparisons and consumption-based CO2 accounting of transportation services

As the international division of labour becomes more entrenched, the distance goods travel before they reach the final consumer increases;at least this was the case before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. International trade and cross-border cargo movements generate significant carbon emissions. Despite theoretical advances, empirical studies frequently draw contradictory conclusions and the influence of international trade on a country's decarbonization efforts is inconclusive. This study examines the carbon emissions caused by countries' transportation services on global value chains. The input–output (IO) model and the 2015 multi-regional environmental input–output table from the UNCTAD-Eora database are employed. The input–output approach was used to determine the carbon emissions generated by the transport sector, along global value chains, in 190 countries. Environmentally extended IO analysis then reallocates emissions responsibilities of the transport sector from production to consumption. The study identifies which country's transport sectors add more value or emit more CO2. Our findings indicated that: (1) the transportation industry of a country may have a detrimental effect on the environment while generating minimal economic benefit;and (2) a country's transport industry may be tightly related to global value chain operations, but does not create considerable environmental impact. Given the significant differences in emissions intensity, we propose not only calculating the production-based accounting (PBA) of CO2 emissions, but also the consumption-based accounting (CBA). If CBA emissions are lower than PBA emissions, a country's transport sector is in carbon-leakage credit. The top three countries with the highest carbon-leakage credit for the transport sector were China, Russia and USA. If carbon emissions are taken into consideration, some nations may cease to possess a comparative advantage in manufacturing and trade. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China

How do firms in global value chains react to input shortages? We examine micro-level adjustments to supply chain shocks, building on the Covid-19 pandemic as a case study. French firms sourcing inputs from China just before the early lockdown in the country experienced a relative drop in imports that increases from February to April 2020. This shock on input purchases transmits to the rest of the supply chain through exposed firm's domestic and export sales. Between February and June, firms exposed to the Chinese early lockdown experienced a 5.5% drop in domestic sales and a 5% drop in exports, in relative terms with respect to comparable non-exposed firms. The drop in foreign sales is entirely attributable to a lower volume of exports driven by a temporary withdrawal from occasional markets. We then dig into the heterogeneity of the transmission across treated firms. Whereas the ex-ante geographic diversification of inputs does not seem to mitigate the impact of the shock, firms with relatively high inventories have been able to absorb the supply shock better.

Shocks and the determinants of resilience: Fish and shrimp value chains in Bangladesh after Covid-19

There is little systematic evidence on the resilience of South Asian agri-food value chains since the onset of Covid-19. Using two rounds of surveys of 1751 fish and shrimp value chain actors in Bangladesh, this paper undertakes two sets of tasks: (a) analyzes business continuity (closures and resumptions) and its implications for household food security, and (b) adapts a ten-item measure of subjective resilience and examines its predictors: diversity, scope, scale, vertical integration, and cluster effects. Results show that recent closures are linked to Covid-19, suggesting that firms were only able to sustain operations for a period of 8–9 months before folding due to cumulative stresses;and that the degree of resilience varies significantly across value chains and the segments within them. Interestingly, contrary to established stylized facts, clusters appear to be negatively correlated with resilience, indicating that cooperation among value chain actors within a cluster breaks down under large-scale covariate shocks. The implications of these and other key findings are discussed. © 2023 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association.

Socio-ecological value chain resilience and cleaning workers

Examining the ways that industries survived the COVID-19 pandemic can teach us a great deal about the resilience of value chains, the ways value chain dynamics shape worker resilience, and the measures states can adopt to support both. In this paper we critically examine the thriving body of theory known broadly as supply chain resilience and explore a branch that embraces socio-ecological perspectives. We first develop a theoretical model that takes what we perceive to be the most fruitful elements of these literatures for industrial relations scholarship and bring it together with approaches tangential to industrial relations concerned with value chain actor and worker agency and resilience. We then apply this model in an analysis of the Australian commercial cleaning sector during the pandemic. Finally, we assess federal and state measures to assist and "buffer” employment and the economy in Australia, including JobKeeper and JobSeeker. We find that these government measures, combined with earlier restructuring of the labour market and restrictive immigration policies, provided the institutional scaffolding for the failure of the cleaning industry during the pandemic, exactly when cleaning became an essential service for the resilience of the whole of society.

Economic exposure to regional value chain disruptions: evidence from Wuhan's lockdown in China

Production fragmentation across multiple regions can result in a regional shock propagating along value chains to a wider array of regions. We propose a methodological framework to measure the economic exposure to regional value chain disruptions due to city lockdown during Covid-19. The exposure index is evaluated by applying a hypothetical extraction method to a regionally extended inter-country input–output framework incorporating China's interregional input–output table. Our methodology can be adapted to conduct disaster impact analyses at city, state and country levels. It provides a tool for the immediate assessment of the economic risks of value chain disruptions, enabling quick policy responses.

Understanding livelihood changes in the charcoal and baobab value chains during Covid-19 in rural Mozambique: The role of power, risk and civic-based stakeholder conventions.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the transmission of Covid-19 had different repercussions for domestic, regional and global value chains, but empirical data are sparse on specific dynamics, particularly on their implications for value-chain stakeholders' local livelihoods. Through research including weekly phone interviews (n = 273 from May to July 2020) with panellists in six Mozambican communities, our research traced firstly how the baobab and charcoal value chains were affected by Covid NPIs, particularly in terms of producers' livelihoods. Secondly, we ask how our findings advance our understanding of the role of civic-based stakeholder conventions and different types of power in building viable local livelihoods. Our conceptual lens is based on a synthesis of value-chain and production-network analysis, convention theory and livelihood resilience focusing on power and risk. We found that Covid trading and transport restrictions considerably re-shaped value chains, albeit in different ways in each value chain. The global baobab value chain continued to provide earnings particularly to women, when other income sources were eliminated, with socially oriented stakeholders altering their operations to accommodate pandemic restrictions. By contrast, producers involved in the domestic, solely market-oriented charcoal value chain saw their selling opportunities and incomes reduced, with hunger rising in charcoal-dependent communities. Our paper argues that local livelihoods were more resilient under Covid NPIs if civic-based conventions and collective, social power were present.

A study on the changes in the ICT industry after the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to explore the changes in the ICT and global value chains (GVCs) after the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: This study compared the difference between Korea' domestic ICT industries, ICT imports and ICT exports before and after the COVID-19 outbreak by using trade data of ICT products and national economic indicators, and presents growth strategy for the ICT industry in the post-COVID 19 era. For this purpose, this study determined the causalities between Korea's imports/exports of ICT products and composite Indexes before and after COVID-19, and derived implications in the ICT industry environment after the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Analysis results showed the following changes in Korea's ICT industry in the post-COVID-19 world. (1) Non-face-to-face and contact-free technologies related sectors in the ICT industry, such as the semiconductor sector, have grown exponentially;(2) as the USA has grown as the new key player, the causal relationship with China, a key player of the GVC in the pre-COVID-19 era, disappeared;and (3) the GVC of the ICT industry is not a rigid one-way vertical structure, but is changing to a flexible structure influenced by cooperation and competition between countries. Originality/value: The results indicate that it is essential to constantly develop new ICT sectors that make use of non-face-to-face and contact-free technologies in the post-COVID-19 era, and the main strategies in response to the changed GVC would be taking the initiative by securing source technologies and expanding through cooperation with other GVCs and resource sharing. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

COVID-19 Triggers a Paradigm Shift in Technology for Insurance Industry

As the global economy grapples with the advent of novel coronavirus and its variants, the aftermath has left all industries with ongoing uncertainties and incalculable loss of life and livelihood in most countries worldwide. In such unpredictable situations, the insurance industry and governments worldwide have become the prominent source of optimism to sail through the situation. This applies to the insurance industry globally, which is currently in the grip of fear due to the COVID-19 outbreak and anticipating significant economic slowdown and hardship because insurance rides on the back of other Industries. Therefore, to overcome a few of the tenacious roadblocks due to the COVID outbreak, Insurers will be forced to reassess all aspects of their business life cycle and take necessary steps to continue operations with minimum disruption. Precisely, the impact of COVID on General Insurers and Life and Health Insurers varied depending on the lines of business, product lines, and a bouquet of benefits offered by the insurers. The pandemic has taken a hit on new gross written premiums on specific lines of business, such as medical, travel, commercial, and business insurance. Few lines of business such as motor and home have remained muted during the COVID timeframe. However, the claims volumes for personal insurance (e.g., motor) have significantly decreased due to the lockdown and travel restriction;the industry has witnessed the highest claims volumes in life and health compared to the past several decades. They say, "As every dark cloud has a silver lining,” it has given an opportunity to many insurers to develop new products (e.g., Pay Mile Auto insurance) and push toward greater productivity, i.e., digital capability across product range which will result in an elevated position to understand and address to the customer and intermediary self-service (such as Portals) and implicit and explicit needs. Notably, the Insurance industry is likely to lean toward offering personalized yet custom-made products and services, which are sharply focused on preventative care and embracing digitalization across the value chain. Besides enabling scalability and connectivity, insurers are strategically focused on digitizing the core of the business and cloud implementation;automation across the insurance value chain is necessary to compete successfully with new innovative product development or inclusive business models. Around the globe, the insurance industry is continuously putting a deep focus on revitalizing the technology paradigm to grow and strive to achieve cost-effectiveness amid emerging markets, rapidly changing economic conditions and stiff competition from Insurtech. According to industry experts across geographies, growth may be a balanced blend of preventative and protective approaches, with a gamut of new and improved services and products, and insurers are deeply fostering redefining service-oriented strategies and innovative products. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Global value chains for medical gloves during the COVID-19 pandemic: Confronting forced labour through public procurement and crisis

This paper evaluates ways in which labour issues in global value chains for medical gloves have been affected by, and addressed through, the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses on production in Malaysia and supply to the United Kingdom's National Health Service and draws on a large-scale survey with workers and interviews with UK government officials, suppliers and buyers. Adopting a Global Value Chain (GVC) framework, the paper shows how forced labour endemic in the sector was exacerbated during the pandemic in the context of increased demand for gloves. Attempts at remediation are shown to operate through both a reconfigured value chain in which power shifted dramatically to the manufacturers and a context where public procurement became higher in profile than ever before. It is argued that the purchasing power of governments must be leveraged in ways that more meaningfully address labour issues, and that this must be part of value chain resilience. © 2022 The Authors. Global Networks published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and the transformative potential of value chains

Global value chains (GVCs) hold important potential for transformations to sustainability in a context of climate change. Yet, their potential for sustainability may depend on whether, and how, promising individual innovations can foster broader change, disrupting the current unsustainable, inequitable values and paradigms in which they are enmeshed. In this article, I present an action research study of a global coffee value chain, extending geographically from Guatemala to North America. I describe the lead firm's relational governance, a defining characteristic of which is its mentoring-driven approach to social and environmental upgrading, in which producers and buyers collaborate, learn together, and mutually solve problems, in a context of overlapping economic, social, and environmental challenges. Three key strategies for relational governance used by the lead firm include fostering collaboration and trust, providing support for producing regions, and buying above the cost of production. I examine how this relational governance has been helpful in responding to the interconnected challenges and unexpected global-change phenomena, such as climate change as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, in the coffee sector. Findings suggest that this relational governance approach helped actors to respond generatively to unprecedented, shared challenges and helped support greater sustainability overall.

A Bibliometric Analysis of the Global Value Chains Research Field

This paper presents a bibliometric analysis of the global value chains (GVC) research fi-eld. To identify the most influential authors and contributions, potential collaboration networks, most discussed topics, and areas of further rese-arch opportunities within or related to the GVC research field, we applied the five most common bibliometric methods, namely citation, co -citati-on, co-author, and co-word analysis, and bibli-ometric coupling method. Our dataset for quan-titative analysis of available articles, authors, and publication outlets in the GVC research field includes 2,506 articles, book chapters, bo-oks, and conference papers from 1,047 different sources in the Web of Science database published between the years 1999 and 2021. Our analysis provided a structured and thorough bibliometric overview of the GVC research field, including the years of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that the most frequently researched topics include GVC governance, trade, innovation, and production networks. We also identified future GVC-related bibliometric research streams, such as linking GVCs to international sourcing, corpo-rate functions, and firm performance.

Building Resilient Global Value Chains in the Pandemic Era: A Conceptual Framework and Case Studies of Singapore and Vietnam

Despite the growing protectionist policies from major developed and developing countries, multinational corporations (MNCs) tend to adjust their current efficiency-oriented global value chains (GVCs) to more resilient ones, instead of reshoring overseas businesses back home. In this respect, this chapter seeks to introduce a comprehensive framework across four directions: agile response, alternative routes, diversification, and sustainability orientation, for establishing resilient GVCs in the pandemic era. In reviewing and reorganizing the suggestions of existing studies, this chapter argues firms need to be more globalized while maintaining the key principles of GVCs. As such, countries will also need to improve their national business environment and make it more attractive for firms to locate parts of the entire GVCs in their countries. This chapter takes two countries: Vietnam and Singapore - as examples which have been widely recognized as successful countries that have opened up their economies and utilized international resources for economic development. This chapter shows that despite the potential challenges from the global pandemic, both countries tend to push forward the globalization of their economy and introduce various measures, such as strengthening the global relations with other economies and investments for digital transformations, to upgrade their positions in the GVCs. © 2022 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.